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Churchill Downs gets set for another Kentucky Derby this year, and compared to previous runnings, this year has a more ample list of favorites than usual. Five horses have odds better than +900, which is rare for the Derby, especially when you consider that the favorite has won for six years in a row now. Could this be the year that changes?
One thing is for sure, and that is the 22 horses in the race will be competing for a record $3 million guaranteed purse, the largest ever at a Kentucky Derby.
This year’s favorite is Omaha Beach, who has already won the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. He is trained by Richard Mandella, who is a member of the US Racing Hall of fame and has had six of his horses appear in the Kentucky Derby. Omaha Beach will be ridden by last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Mike Smith.
Three of the other candidates to win the Derby this year are trained by Bob Baffert, whose horse Justify won the Triple Crown last year. Overall, Baffert’s horses have won five Kentucky Derbies. A sixth would tie him for the record. This year he has three horses that are vying for the title; Game Winner, Roadster, and Improbable.
Roadster +400
Improbable +450
Omaha Beach +500
Game Winner +500
Maximum Security +700
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While having three horses in a race may improve Baffert’s chances, it could also work against him. In the previous years he has been able to commit all his money into training and developing a single horse, but this year his resources are split among three. Whether or not that is a factor remains to be seen, but it is certainly something to keep in mind while placing a bet.
The other two horses that have decent chances at winning are Maximum Security and Tacitus. Maximum Security is unbeaten so far this year with a 4-0-0 race record. He is trained by Jason Servis, whose horse Firenze Fire finished 11th at the Derby last year.
Tacitus is a product of Khalid Abdullah’s Juddmonte Farms. Their Horse Empire Maker finished second in the 2003 running of the Kentucky Derby.
Of huge importance are the 20 post positions, which were drawn on Tuesday morning. Normally horses who draw the No. 1 post are not favored, regardless how good they are, and horses that draw posts in the middle of the pack have their chances reduced because they are likely to get swallowed up by the pack during the race.
For this year’s race, Omaha Beach drew 12, which is in the middle of the pack, but did not greatly affect his odds of winning.
Game Winner drew favorably at 16, while Roadster drew 17, which oddly is a spot from which no horse has ever won. Baffert’s other horse, improbable, drew post number 5.
Meanwhile, Maximum Security and Tacitus drew posts 7 and 8, respectively.
Finally, the weather forecast for Saturday at Churchill Downs is partly sunny with a 20% chance of rain. The temperature is predicted to be 75 degrees.