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The competition has been whittled down from 68 teams to 4, and this Saturday those remaining teams will take to the court to establish who gets to play in the National Championship.
The evening starts with Auburn taking on Virginia at 6:09 ET, followed by Michigan State and Texas Tech at 8:49 ET.
Out of the four teams remaining, only Michigan State has ever won a title. Auburn and Texas Tech are both appearing in a Final Four for the first time in their school’s history.
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Virginia stands out as the most obvious favorite to win either of these two games (-5½-108 spread, u131-110 total, -260 money line) mostly because their style of play is well suited to defeating teams like Auburn (+5½-108 spread, o131-110 total, +220 money line). While the Tigers have found success in the tournament with their high turnover ratio and success from the three-point range, Virginia will pose a monumental challenge for that style of play. Virginia has a turnover rate of 15 percent, which is among the lowest in the nation. Further, the Cavaliers only allow opponents to convert on one out of nine transitions.
As for the three-point machine that is Auburn - half of Auburn’s shot attempts come from behind the arc- they are only successful 43 percent of the time on contested shots and so far in the tournament they are 8 for 36 on contested shots. Virginia’s defense is among the best at not allowing catch and shoot opportunities, as they have only allowed a 50 percent effective field goal rate.
If the numbers don’t lie, Auburn will either have to change their game plan or execute flawlessly against Virginia to win this game.
Coming off an enormous win against Duke, the Michigan State Spartans are riding high behind Cassius Winston, who won Big Ten player of the year and is averaging 18.9 points and 7.6 assists per game this season. They are a complete team on both sides of the ball, which makes them the favorite (-2½-108 spread, u132½-110 total, -150 money line) in this matchup against Texas Tech (+2½-108 spread, o132½-110 total, +130 money line).
Texas Tech will try to match Winston with their star Jarrett Culver. Culver is also averaging 18.9 points per game, while at the same time holding opponents to 0.6 points per possession, which makes him one of the top defensive players in the tournament as well.
Of the two games on Saturday, this matchup is the most intriguing. The teams match up well against each other, but Michigan holds a slight edge in some key areas; they are a solid rebounding team and are one of the few teams that can speed up the tempo in a game against the defensively-minded Red Raiders. These attributes should be enough to give the Spartans the edge, but expect a close contest.